Forecast Canadian fire danger indexes

Forecast for 13:00 2016-05-31

**Local agency personnel should contact MIFC Fire Intelligence if errors or omissions are observed.**

Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Agassiz 63 75 0.38 15 54.3 4.8 53.2 0.9 7.9 0.5
Albert Lea 72 67 0.44 10 60.9 9.5 152.5 1.0 16.5 0.8
Badoura 67 72 0.31 6 53.3 12.4 133.2 0.4 20.2 0.3
Baudette 59 81 0.12 14 60.8 15.8 158.8 1.3 25.3 2.1
Bemidji 64 79 0.38 11 51.3 21.9 144.6 0.5 31.7 0.6
Bigstone 71 46 0.55 12 68.8 31.3 151.4 1.6 41.2 4.3
Brainerd 64 69 0.44 9 54.0 8.3 90.0 0.5 13.5 0.4
Camp Ripley/Little Falls 68 66 0.81 10 55.1 7.8 55.0 0.6 11.5 0.4
Carlos Avery 70 74 0.39 11 57.3 9.2 105.1 0.8 15.1 0.6
Cass Lake 60 81 0.23 11 52.5 32.7 157.8 0.5 43.1 0.8
Cutfoot 58 79 0.16 8 55.8 30.3 168.1 0.6 41.8 0.9
Detroit Lakes 67 63 0.71 11 56.9 10.2 111.6 0.8 16.6 0.6
Effie 55 79 0.09 10 65.2 31.5 167.3 1.2 42.8 3.2
Ely 55 70 0.02 14 81.8 16.9 125.5 4.3 25.2 7.9
Fernberg 56 67 0.02 15 79.0 16.0 122.9 3.4 24.1 6.1
Grand Portage 45 77 0.01 16 72.6 11.6 114.2 2.4 18.5 3.7
Hibbing 55 78 0.13 10 59.3 12.5 148.6 0.8 20.7 0.8
Hill City 59 77 0.23 8 52.0 18.8 150.9 0.4 28.7 0.4
Isabella 48 83 0.01 16 73.1 10.1 82.1 2.5 15.5 3.4
Itasca 65 77 0.66 8 46.4 10.3 126.5 0.2 17.1 0.2
Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Kelliher 62 85 0.16 10 53.4 23.8 163.1 0.5 34.8 0.7
Kittson 63 75 0.64 14 51.2 6.9 54.8 0.6 10.5 0.4
Litchfield 70 65 0.59 8 57.4 7.9 32.0 0.7 9.8 0.4
Littlefork 57 72 0.03 13 80.1 35.0 174.6 3.3 46.7 9.2
Mille Lacs WMA 66 70 0.59 9 52.0 5.8 27.7 0.4 7.6 0.2
MN Valley 72 68 0.36 10 61.8 11.3 115.6 1.0 18.2 0.9
Moose Lake 62 65 0.32 7 56.4 12.1 79.2 0.6 17.5 0.5
Mora 68 70 0.51 9 54.8 7.9 97.4 0.6 13.1 0.4
New Ulm Municipal Airport 72 62 0.54 11 62.3 7.6 15.4 1.1 7.5 0.6
Orr 60 64 0.03 12 79.9 31.9 153.4 2.9 42.0 7.6
Redstn 67 56 0.94 13 60.7 7.5 6.0 1.2 7.0 0.6
Rice Lake 61 73 0.28 7 52.8 17.0 134.2 0.4 25.9 0.4
Rochester 75 61 0.25 12 70.5 7.9 34.4 1.6 10.1 1.0
Roseau 61 83 0.2 15 53.8 6.3 82.5 0.8 10.5 0.5
Saginaw 52 81 0.16 12 54.5 18.5 128.2 0.7 27.2 0.8
Seagull Lake 54 65 0.02 14 76.5 11.1 81.3 2.7 16.5 3.8
Sherburne 70 70 0.59 9 55.0 5.5 60.1 0.6 8.9 0.3
Skibo 51 80 0.04 13 74.5 25.9 166.3 2.1 37.3 5.1
Stanton Airfield 73 66 0.35 11 63.8 14.7 170.0 1.2 24.2 1.8
St. Croix 70 61 0.42 9 62.2 9.7 96.2 1.0 15.5 0.7
Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Superior #2 57 67 0.02 13 80.3 21.4 146.2 3.2 31.3 7.0
Voyageurs/Kabnam 56 77 0.02 14 75.4 38.7 176.5 2.4 50.0 7.1

Interpretation

The following chart is a statewide generalized fire danger rating chart for the Canadian Fire Weather Index. It is based on a five class danger rating system, i.e., low, moderate, high, very high , and extreme. The distribution is based on weather records from 1985 - 1998. Low days occurred 45% to 50% of the time, moderate - 30 %, high days - 12% to 15%, very high days occurred 7%-8% of the time, and extreme days were 2%-3%. This is not meant to be used as a staffing guide . Each area needs to look at its own weather data coupled with its fire occurrence data. For instance, if you have a drought code of 380, it does not mean you are in extreme fire danger. It means that the drought code only gets that high on 2% of the days between April 1 and November 1.

Index Low Moderate High Very High Extreme

FFMC

0.0 - 80.9

81.0 - 87.9

88.0 - 90.4

90.5 - 92.4

92.5+

DMC

0.0 - 12.9

13.0 - 27.9

28.0 - 41.9

42.0 - 62.9

63.0+

DC

0.0 - 79.9

80.0 - 209.9

210.0 - 273.9

274.0 - 359.9

360.0+

ISI

0.0 - 3.9

4.0 - 7.9

8.0 - 10.9

11.0 - 18.9

19.0+

BUI

0.0 - 18.9

19.0 - 33.9

34.0 - 53.9

54.0 - 76.9

77.0+

FWI

0.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 13.9

14.0 - 20.9

21.0 - 32.9

33.0+

Definitions

Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC)

This provides a relative indicator of the moisture in the fine fuels. Like the 1 hour fuel moisture, it reacts directly with the air temperature and relative humidity.

Duff Moisture Code (DMC)

This is an index of the moisture of the loosely compact organic layers at a depth of 2-4 inches.

Drought Code (DC)

This measures long term dryness in the fuels. It is a longer term index than the NFDRS 1000 fuel moisture. It doesn't reflect the probability of fire occurrence by itself, but can be useful in predicting the level of mop up needed and the consumption of large fuels. It should be looked at in relation to peat fire starts.

Initial Spread Index (ISI)

This is based on the FFMC and the wind speed. It provides a relative numerical rating of the expected rate of spread. This is similar to the NFDRS Spread Component.

Buildup Index (BUI)

This index is based on the DC and the DMC. It provides a relative indication of the amount of fuel available for combustion. This is somewhat similar to the NFDRS Energy Release Component. It doesn't predict what a given day might be like, but does relate well to the dryness of the fuels.

Fire Weather Index (FWI)

This combines the BUI and the ISI to give a relative numerical rating of fire intensity. It can be compared to the NFDRS Burning Index.