Forecast Canadian fire danger indexes

Forecast for 12:00 2016-02-14

**Local agency personnel should contact MIFC Fire Intelligence if errors or omissions are observed.**

Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Agassiz 15 78 0.04 15 72.4 0.1 207.1 2.3 0.2 0.5
Albert Lea 19 80 0.09 16 57.8 0.0 125.9 1.2 0.0 0.2
Badoura 16 59 0.04 13 76.2 0.7 118.8 2.4 1.4 0.7
Baudette 13 68 0.01 11 82.2 0.1 156.7 3.5 0.2 0.8
Bemidji 13 72 0.03 14 75.7 0.0 88.1 2.5 0.0 0.5
Bigstone 20 87 0.18 11 40.1 0.8 171.8 0.1 1.5 0.0
Brainerd 14 65 0.0 14 82.5 0.3 40.2 4.9 0.6 1.6
Camp Ripley/Little Falls 15 73 0.01 12 81.7 0.5 62.4 3.5 1.0 0.9
Carlos Avery 17 70 0.0 12 82.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 0.8 1.0
Cass Lake 13 61 0.01 13 80.4 0.4 46.5 3.4 0.8 0.8
Cutfoot 12 63 0.01 12 78.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.5
Effie 12 63 0.0 11 80.1 0.0 31.6 2.7 0.0 0.5
Ely 10 62 0.0 9 74.0 0.0 57.0 1.5 0.0 0.3
Fernberg 9 67 0.0 9 75.8 0.0 69.6 1.7 0.0 0.3
Grand Portage 14 60 0.0 12 81.6 0.3 0.5 3.7 0.1 0.8
Hibbing 9 65 0.0 13 81.3 0.1 0.5 3.7 0.1 0.8
Itasca 16 68 0.04 14 74.3 0.3 40.8 2.4 0.6 0.6
Kelliher 14 64 0.01 11 81.8 0.4 85.7 3.4 0.8 0.9
Kittson 17 76 0.04 17 73.3 0.1 146.0 2.8 0.2 0.6
Litchfield 18 83 0.05 12 69.1 0.7 86.0 1.6 1.4 0.4
Station °F RH P24I Wind FFMC DMC DC ISI BUI FWI
Littlefork 11 59 0.0 9 82.4 0.1 44.0 3.0 0.2 0.7
Meander USFS 9 65 0.0 9 75.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.3
MN Valley 20 72 0.03 12 78.8 1.1 8.1 2.6 1.6 0.8
Moose Lake 12 60 0.0 11 84.0 0.9 15.6 4.5 1.6 2.0
Mora 16 71 0.0 12 82.0 0.7 3.4 3.7 0.9 0.9
Orr 9 61 0.0 10 80.5 0.0 10.4 2.6 0.0 0.5
Redstn 22 79 0.08 11 61.1 0.0 114.1 1.0 0.0 0.2
Rice Lake 12 70 0.0 11 82.1 0.3 0.4 3.5 0.0 0.7
Rochester 18 78 0.03 20 73.6 0.2 0.2 3.5 0.0 0.7
Roseau 15 71 0.03 12 77.6 0.1 151.1 2.5 0.2 0.5
Saginaw 10 61 0.0 12 80.6 0.0 1.3 3.1 0.0 0.6
Seagull Lake 11 54 0.0 10 76.9 0.0 80.6 1.9 0.0 0.4
Sherburne 17 77 0.0 12 81.6 0.7 9.8 3.5 1.2 1.0
Stanton Airfield 19 73 0.02 14 79.6 0.7 112.9 3.4 1.4 1.0
St. Croix 14 60 0.0 10 83.5 0.9 1.4 4.0 0.7 1.0
Voyageurs/Kabnam 9 62 0.0 9 79.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.5

Interpretation

The following chart is a statewide generalized fire danger rating chart for the Canadian Fire Weather Index. It is based on a five class danger rating system, i.e., low, moderate, high, very high , and extreme. The distribution is based on weather records from 1985 - 1998. Low days occurred 45% to 50% of the time, moderate - 30 %, high days - 12% to 15%, very high days occurred 7%-8% of the time, and extreme days were 2%-3%. This is not meant to be used as a staffing guide . Each area needs to look at its own weather data coupled with its fire occurrence data. For instance, if you have a drought code of 380, it does not mean you are in extreme fire danger. It means that the drought code only gets that high on 2% of the days between April 1 and November 1.

Index Low Moderate High Very High Extreme

FFMC

0.0 - 80.9

81.0 - 87.9

88.0 - 90.4

90.5 - 92.4

92.5+

DMC

0.0 - 12.9

13.0 - 27.9

28.0 - 41.9

42.0 - 62.9

63.0+

DC

0.0 - 79.9

80.0 - 209.9

210.0 - 273.9

274.0 - 359.9

360.0+

ISI

0.0 - 3.9

4.0 - 7.9

8.0 - 10.9

11.0 - 18.9

19.0+

BUI

0.0 - 18.9

19.0 - 33.9

34.0 - 53.9

54.0 - 76.9

77.0+

FWI

0.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 13.9

14.0 - 20.9

21.0 - 32.9

33.0+

Definitions

Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC)

This provides a relative indicator of the moisture in the fine fuels. Like the 1 hour fuel moisture, it reacts directly with the air temperature and relative humidity.

Duff Moisture Code (DMC)

This is an index of the moisture of the loosely compact organic layers at a depth of 2-4 inches.

Drought Code (DC)

This measures long term dryness in the fuels. It is a longer term index than the NFDRS 1000 fuel moisture. It doesn't reflect the probability of fire occurrence by itself, but can be useful in predicting the level of mop up needed and the consumption of large fuels. It should be looked at in relation to peat fire starts.

Initial Spread Index (ISI)

This is based on the FFMC and the wind speed. It provides a relative numerical rating of the expected rate of spread. This is similar to the NFDRS Spread Component.

Buildup Index (BUI)

This index is based on the DC and the DMC. It provides a relative indication of the amount of fuel available for combustion. This is somewhat similar to the NFDRS Energy Release Component. It doesn't predict what a given day might be like, but does relate well to the dryness of the fuels.

Fire Weather Index (FWI)

This combines the BUI and the ISI to give a relative numerical rating of fire intensity. It can be compared to the NFDRS Burning Index.