Minnesota's Spectacular Early Autumn Micro-Season

Clear skies in early October 2016
Clear skies as observed outside the State Climatology Office during early October 2016

If you loved the clear skies and tranquil weather of late September and early October 2016, you were enjoying one of the lesser-known oddities of our regional climate.
The five days ending on October 3rd were virtually cloud-free in many parts of the state, and the Twin Cities had fewer clouds than any other 5-day period this year. In fact, to find a comparably cloudless period, you would have to go back to October 2015! The fact that it was nearly the same time of year is no coincidence: clear skies and traditionally pleasant weather are more common during this period than any other time of year in the Upper Midwest.

The late Dr. Don Baker and his colleagues first discovered this “micro-season” of agreeable weather during the early 1980s. They observed that from the Canadian border down into Missouri, clear days (those with no cloud cover between sunrise and sunset) were by far most common from the last week in September through much of October, with a sharp spike centered on the period between September 27th and October 3rd.


Graph of clear sky frequencies in the Twin Cities
Graph of clear sky frequencies in the Twin Cities. The left axis refers to the average frequencies of clear skies (no clouds), derived by combining daily cloud cover data through July 1996 with hourly data available thereafter. The right axis indicates the frequencies relative to the annual clear-sky minimum during mid-June.

This finding has been remarkably stable. Even when we update that earlier work using both manual and automated data, we find the same thing. By combining the daily cloud cover data available between 1965 and 1996 with the hourly data available from 1996 through 2015, we still see that the end of September into early October has more clear skies than any other time of year, and 600% of what we find in mid-June!

(June, by the way, is not the cloudiest time of year—that distinction goes to December. June is, however, least likely to be completely free of clouds.)

Another unique signature of this early fall fair weather tradition shows up as a bump in our daily temperature range. The average difference between daily high and low temperatures generally peaks during the summer and then decreases steadily into the early winter. However, the clear skies of late September and early October allow for both cooler nights and warmer days, temporarily boosting the daily temperature range. 2016 modeled this behavior perfectly, with the daily temperature range jumping from an average of 11.6 degrees between September 20th and 28th, to 20.8 degrees between September 29th and October 4th.

Several regularly-occurring factors contribute to this relatively short yet somewhat dependable period of fine weather.

Graph of autumn daily temperature range in Twin Cities
Graph showing the average daily temperature range (the difference between the daily high and low) in the Twin Cities, based on 30 years of data from October of 1986 through September 2016.

First, the amount of moisture plants release to the atmosphere winds down rapidly in late September with fading sunlight and falling temperatures. This loss of moisture reduces the relative humidity, which both prevents cloud formation and allows for greater temperature ranges. Interestingly, the Upper Midwestern “rainy season” tends to end around that time also.

Additionally, this period coincides with a general increase in sea-level pressure across the region. Rising pressure means sinking air, and sinking air means few or no clouds, because clouds are formed and maintained by rising air

Unfortunately, the duration of this lovely weather is usually kept at bay by the transition to a winter-like circulation pattern, which typically begins in mid or late October, and is marked by lower pressure, higher humidity, and hence, more clouds. These conditions only intensify through the remainder of fall and early winter, leaving December as the cloudiest month on the calendar.

When we get out of the early winter gloom in January, the mid-winter storm track is well south of Minnesota, leaving us in cold high pressure with plenty of—you guessed it—clear skies. But these clear skies almost always spell very cold conditions, often the coldest of the year.

So, Minnesota can have exceptional weather virtually any time of year, but thanks to a well-timed convergence of factors, those conditions are most likely during a short, sweet window in early fall.

(Read the classic scientific paper by Don Baker and colleagues.)


Last modified: October 5, 2016
For more information contact: climate@umn.edu