HydroClim Minnesota for Early August 2015
A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.
State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
distributed: August 6, 2015
What happened in July 2015:
Where we stand now:
- Seasonal precipitation totals (April through July) rank near or above the historical median in most Minnesota counties. Some locations in north central and northeast Minnesota, as well as small sections of southwest Minnesota, report below-median seasonal precipitation totals.
[see: Seasonal Precipitation Ranking Map]
- The latest U. S. Drought Monitor map reflects the impact of dry July weather on portions of north central and northeast Minnesota. The product released on August 6, depicts this area (roughly 20% of Minnesota's landscape) as Abnormally Dry. The map shows no other areas in Minnesota in a dryness category. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators.
[see: Drought Conditions Overview]
- The U.S. Geological Survey and the Minnesota DNR report that stream discharge values are near, to somewhat above, historical medians for the date on most Minnesota rivers. A few gauging locations in south central Minnesota, and in northeast Minnesota, report below-median streamflow for this time of year.
[see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions | MNDNR Weekly Stream Flow Maps and Tables]
- Water levels on most Minnesota lakes are near the middle of the historical data distribution for this time of year. Some northeast Minnesota lakes are below historical averages for the date.
[see: Mille Lacs Lake Water Level | Lake Minnetonka Water Level | White Bear Lake Water Level | Lake of the Woods Control Board Basin Data | Corps of Engineers Great Lakes Water Levels]
- In their August 3 report, the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reported that topsoil moisture was 7 percent Short, 88 percent Adequate, and 5 percent Surplus.
[see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition | U. of M. Southwest Research & Outreach Center (Lamberton) | U. of M. Southern Research & Outreach Center (Waseca)]
- The potential for wildfires is currently rated by DNR Forestry as High in portions of northeast Minnesota, Moderate throughout the remainder of northern Minnesota, and Low in the southern two-thirds of the state.
[see: Fire Danger Rating Map]
- The August precipitation outlook offers equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions in most Minnesota counties. However, the August outlook leans towards above-normal rainfall in far southwest Minnesota. August precipitation normals range from under three inches in northwest and west central Minnesota to over four and one half inches in southeastern counties.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | August Precipitation Normal Map]
- The August temperature outlook favors below-normal conditions across the southern one-third of Minnesota, and equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions elsewhere. Normal August high temperatures are around 80 degrees to start the month, dropping to the mid-70s by month's end. Normal lows are around 60 degrees early in the month, falling to the mid-50s by late August.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | August Temperature Normal Map]
- The 90-day precipitation outlook for August through October indicates equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions across Minnesota. The August through October temperature projection also offers equal probabilities of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions statewide.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
- The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities.
[see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]
From the author:
- For most Minnesota locales, the summertime weather has been close to ideal. The state has not suffered a major heat wave or consistently unbearable humidity levels. With the exception of some northeast Minnesota communities, growing season rainfall totals have been adequate to abundant. And while some severe weather has been reported, the damage has been geographically isolated. The excellent growing season-to-date weather conditions are apparent when reviewing the latest USDA survey of Minnesota's two major commodities, corn and soybeans. In an early-August report, corn condition was rated 87 percent good to excellent. Soybean condition was rated 81 percent good to excellent.
[see: 2015 Summer Glory Index]
Upcoming dates of note:
- August 20: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
Web sites featured in this edition:
- http://water.weather.gov/precip/ - National Weather Service, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
- http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group, Minnesota DNR Eco/Water Resources and U of M Dept. of Soil, Water, and Climate
- http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu - Midwestern Regional Climate Center
- http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
- http://waterwatch.usgs.gov - U.S. Geological Survey
- http://mndnr.gov/waters - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Ecological and Water Resources
- http://www.minnehahacreek.org - Minnehaha Creek Watershed District
- http://www.lwcb.ca - Lake of the Woods Control Board
- http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/ - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District
- http://www.nass.usda.gov - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
- http://swroc.cfans.umn.edu - University of Minnesota, Southwest Research and Outreach Center, Lamberton
- http://sroc.cfans.umn.edu - University of Minnesota, Southern Research and Outreach Center, Waseca
- http://mndnr.gov/forestry - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center
- http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc - National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center
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Greg Spoden, DNR Climatologist