HydroClim Minnesota for Early March 2016
A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.
State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
distributed: March 3, 2016
What happened in February 2016:
Where we stand now:
- Snow depths across Minnesota range from zero across large sections of central and western Minnesota, to over 24 inches along the Lake Superior highlands in northeast Minnesota. Snow depths are below historical medians for the date nearly everywhere in Minnesota with the exception of far northeast Minnesota where snow cover is somewhat above median.
[see: Weekly Snow Depth and Ranking Maps | NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map | Midwest Regional Climate Center Snow Depth Map]
- The U. S. Drought Monitor map released on March 3 depicts portions of northwest Minnesota as Abnormally Dry due to precipitation deficits incurred in mid-2015. The map shows no other areas in Minnesota in a dryness category. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators.
[see: Drought Conditions Overview]
- The U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values (where winter measurements are possible) are much above historical medians for the date on most Minnesota rivers.
[see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions]
- In their final report of the 2015 growing season (November 23), the Agricultural Statistics Service reported that topsoil moisture across Minnesota was 1 percent Very Short, 9 percent Short, 79 percent Adequate, and 11 percent Surplus. History has shown that soil moisture conditions observed in the late autumn are indicative of conditions to be expected when the soil thaws.
[see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition | U. of M. Southwest Research & Outreach Center (Lamberton) | U. of M. Southern Research & Outreach Center (Waseca)]
- Soil frost depths are shallow for early March, less than 18 inches under sod at most Minnesota observing locations, much shallower in many locales. Historically, frost depth reaches maximum extent in late February or early March.
[see: Corps of Engineers Snow, Ice, Frost Data | National Weather Service Frost Depth Data | MnDOT Road Frost Depths | University of Minnesota - St. Paul Campus Soil Temperatures Under Sod]
- Minnesota's lakes and wetland complexes are ice covered. Warm November and December temperatures delayed ice formation. In some cases, lake ice formation dates were among the latest on record. Warm February temperatures led to sloppy ice conditions on many lakes. As of this writing, an early lake ice-out is anticipated. Lake and river ice is never completely safe.
[see: DNR Conservation Officer Reports | Earliest Lake Ice-Out Dates on Record]
- The March precipitation outlook offers equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions across Minnesota. Historically, average March precipitation totals range from near three-quarters of an inch in northwestern Minnesota to around two inches in southern sections of the state. March is a transition month when cold, dry continental air masses are gradually replaced by warmer, moister air on a more frequent basis. This is demonstrated by the fact that March's normal precipitation is 50 percent higher than February's normal precipitation, the greatest percentage increase between any two successive months.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | March Precipitation Normal Map]
- The March temperature outlook leans heavily towards above-normal conditions across Minnesota. Normal March high temperatures climb from near 30 degrees early in the month to the low to mid-40s by month's end. Normal March lows begin the month in the single digits above zero in the far north and mid-teens in the south. By late March, normal lows are in the low 20s in the north, near 30 in the south.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | March Temperature Normal Map]
- The 90-day precipitation outlook for March through May indicates equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions in the western one-half of Minnesota, and a tilt towards below-normal conditions in northern and eastern counties. The March through May temperature projection strongly favors above-normal conditions statewide.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
- The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities. The present threat for significant, impactful, snowmelt flooding is very low. Here are current conditions impacting prospects for spring snowmelt flooding:
[see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]
- present streamflows are high to very high relative to historical flows for the date
- soil profiles are moist to saturated in most areas
- the high stream discharge and moist soils are due to record-breaking high precipitation totals in November/December
- frost depths are shallow relative to historical values due to very warm early-winter temperatures
- snow depths are below, to well below, the historical median for the date in most Minnesota locales.
From the author:
Upcoming dates of note:
- March 3: National Weather Service Weather issues Spring Flood Outlook with probabilistic products
- March 17: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
Web sites featured in this edition:
- http://water.weather.gov/precip/ - National Weather Service, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
- http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group, Minnesota DNR Eco/Water Resources and U of M Dept. of Soil, Water, and Climate
- http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu - Midwestern Regional Climate Center
- http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov - National Weather Service, National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
- http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
- http://waterwatch.usgs.gov - U.S. Geological Survey
- http://www.nass.usda.gov - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
- http://swroc.cfans.umn.edu - University of Minnesota, Southwest Research and Outreach Center, Lamberton
- http://sroc.cfans.umn.edu - University of Minnesota, Southern Research and Outreach Center, Waseca
- http://www.mvp-wc.usace.army.mil - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District
- http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc - National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center
- http://www.dot.state.mn.us/materials - Office of Materials & Road Research, MnDOT
- http://mndnr.gov/enforcement - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Enforcement
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center
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Greg Spoden, DNR Climatologist