HydroClim Minnesota for Early January 2016

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
distributed: January 7, 2016

What happened in December 2015:

  • December monthly precipitation totals were much above average at nearly every Minnesota reporting station. In many locations, December monthly precipitation totals exceeded the long-term mean by one to two inches. December precipitation was particularly heavy in southeast Minnesota, where much of the precipitation fell as rain. The state-averaged December precipitation total was 1.82 inches, ranking as the second highest December total on record.
    [see: December 2015 Precipitation Departure Map  |  December 2015 Climate Summary Table  |  December 2015 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map]
  • Average monthly temperatures for December were well above historical averages across Minnesota, ranging from seven to twelve degrees above normal. December 2015 was Minnesota's warmest December of the modern record. Extremes for December ranged from a high of 53 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County) on the 9th, to a low of -13 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) on the 27th. A number of warm minimum temperature records were set during the first half of December. 
    [see: December 2015 Climate Summary Table  |  2015 December Departure from Normal Temperature Map]

Where we stand now:

Future prospects:

  • The January precipitation outlook offers equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions in the southern one-half of Minnesota. The January precipitation outlook tilts towards below-normal conditions in the northern one-half of the state. January precipitation normals range from near one-half inch of liquid equivalent in western Minnesota to just over one inch liquid in eastern sections of the state. The median snow cover at the end of January ranges from near five inches in southwest Minnesota, to over 15 inches on the ground in northeastern Minnesota (greater than 24 inches along the Lake Superior highlands).
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | January Precipitation Normal Map]
  • The January temperature outlook leans towards above-normal conditions across Minnesota. Historically, January is Minnesota's coldest month. Normal January high temperatures range the low-teens in the north, to near 20 in the south. Normal January lows range from near minus 10 degrees in the far north, to the single digits above zero in southern Minnesota.
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook  | January Temperature Normal Map]
  • The 90-day precipitation outlook for January through March indicates equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal conditions in the southwestern one-third of Minnesota, and a tilt towards below-normal conditions in the northern and eastern counties. The January through March temperature projection strongly favors above-normal conditions statewide.
    [see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]
  • The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities.
    [see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]

From the author:

  • none

Upcoming dates of note:

  • January 21: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks

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Greg Spoden, DNR Climatologist