Will we have snow on the ground at Christmas? It's an age-old question that we hear frequently as the holidays approach. The chances of having a "white Christmas," defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th, range from virtually guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead, to about 60% in southwestern Minnesota. The snow depth at most sites is measured once a day, usually in the morning. The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed. Northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the US where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet (U.S. White Christmas Probabilities).
In 124 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 71% of the time. From 1899 to 2022 there have been 36 "brown Christmases," with either a 0 or a "trace" reported for snow depth on December 25th in the Twin Cities; the last such instance was in 2021, when warm conditions melted all remaining snow on the 24th and in the overnight hours before the morning observation. The years 2018 and 2015 also no measurable snow on the ground in the Twin Cities on December 25th.
The deepest snow cover on record on December 25th was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches. It was also a very cold Christmas in 1983, with the high temperature of one (1) degree F. It was not the coldest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities. That dubious award goes to 1996 with a "high" temperature of 9 below zero F. The warmest Christmas Day in the Twin Cities was 51 degrees in 1922. There was not a white Christmas that year. In fact, the Minneapolis Weather Bureau log book for that day states that the day felt "spring-like."
Perhaps the most bizarre weather conditions on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day occurred in 1982, when heavy rains with thunder and lightning hit the Twin Cities after dusk on the 24th and continued into the early morning hours of the 25th. The rain changed over to a slushy 1.4 inches of snow later in the morning of the 25th, but officially 1982 was a brown Christmas since the snow depth was measured at 6am and the change-over occurred after that. Christmas Day 2016 had a heavy thunderstorm in the evening with sleet and bright flashes of lightning.
Heavy snowstorms have struck the state occasionally on Christmas Eve and day, most recently in 2009, when a wide swath of the southwest, central and northeastern Minnesota received over a foot of snow, with accumulations near two feet in some areas, including Duluth. That event produced over 7 inches in the Twin Cities, along with a mixture of slush and rain. In 1945, 11.3 inches fell in Downtown Minneapolis on December 24th and 25th, with 8-14 inches across much of southern Minnesota, as huge drifts piled up across the area.
Listed below are the probabilities of a white Christmas of at least 1 inch snow depth at some select cities. After this table, there is detailed information on past Christmas weather for the Twin Cities.
PROBABILITY IN PERCENT (%) OF AT LEAST: LOCATION YEARS OF RECORD 1 INCH 5 INCHES 10 INCHES ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ADA 36 92 47 22 AGASSIZ REFUGE 38 100 71 24 AITKIN 26 85 46 23 ALBERT LEA 45 69 33 16 ALEXANDRIA 54 87 39 15 ANGUS 25 96 44 12 ARGYLE 45 82 38 13 ARTICHOKE LAKE 72 64 19 7 AUSTIN 52 67 29 13 BABBITT 39 100 82 44 BAUDETTE 26 88 62 31 BEARDSLEY 22 73 32 14 BEMIDJI AIRPORT 65 92 65 32 BENSON 50 84 32 10 BIG FALLS 24 100 83 54 BIRD ISLAND 29 79 41 14 BRAINERD RS 34 97 59 29 BRICELYN 24 71 25 12 BUFFALO 41 83 46 17 CALEDONIA 41 83 39 12 CAMBRIDGE 66 86 42 23 CAMPBELL 37 78 27 5 CANBY 62 66 34 10 CARIBOU 50 90 68 28 CASS LAKE 21 100 76 48 CEDAR 36 92 47 17 CHASKA 69 74 28 13 CLOQUET 51 100 84 47 COKATO 26 73 31 12 COLLEGEVILLE 73 85 45 15 COOK 25 100 84 64 COTTON 32 100 72 47 CRANE LAKE 16 100 94 56 CROOKSTON 50 94 46 12 DAWSON 50 76 26 8 DETROIT LAKES 50 90 50 10 DULUTH HARBOR 24 88 54 8 DULUTH AIRPORT 54 98 67 46 DULUTH DOWNTOWN 31 97 58 23 ELBOW LAKE 26 69 38 19 ELGIN 52 81 33 15 ELK RIVER 57 86 44 21 FAIRMONT 58 76 29 12 FARIBAULT 54 78 33 17 FARMINGTON 79 81 32 16 FERGUS FALLS 56 88 39 11 FOREST LAKE 44 86 34 16 FORT RIPLEY 39 95 59 15 FOSSTON 40 90 68 28 GAYLORD 36 64 28 11 GEORGETOWN 26 77 31 12 GLENWOOD 43 74 37 12 GRAND MARAIS 54 89 61 39 GRAND MEADOW 20 75 50 30 GRAND RAPIDS 66 97 67 39 GULL LAKE DAM 35 97 63 29 GUNFLINT LAKE 14 100 93 50 HALSTAD 22 68 36 9 HARMONY 49 76 41 24 HASTINGS 49 82 29 18 HIBBING 38 97 66 45 HIGH LANDING 28 96 57 21 HINCKLEY 55 91 45 15 HOYT LAKES 24 100 83 33 HUTCHINSON 36 64 31 11 INDUS 28 79 64 25 INTERNATIONAL FALLS 63 97 73 43 ISABELLA 15 100 100 73 ISLAND LAKE 34 100 74 47 ISLE 32 91 56 28 ITASCA STATE PARK 54 96 80 41 JORDAN 40 60 25 15 KETTLE FALLS 24 79 71 42 LA CRESCENT 57 72 32 16 LAKE CITY 22 59 27 14 LAKE WILSON 23 57 30 9 LAMBERTON 39 64 28 10 LANESBORO 41 73 34 17 LE CENTER 20 70 30 10 LEECH LAKE DAM 50 98 70 30 LITCHFIELD 25 68 36 20 LITTLE FALLS 33 82 42 9 LONG PRAIRIE 52 90 54 17 LUVERNE 36 64 36 19 MADISON 37 62 22 5 MAHNOMEN 34 91 53 15 MAPLE PLAIN 46 78 41 20 MARSHALL 53 68 28 13 MEADOWLANDS 30 97 73 30 MILACA 51 90 45 16 MILAN 47 68 36 17 MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL 108 71 32 11 MINNESOTA CITY 49 82 35 14 MONTEVIDEO 45 62 36 13 MONTGOMERY 22 68 27 9 MOORHEAD 50 84 44 16 MOOSE LAKE 53 98 51 17 MORA 49 92 47 14 MORRIS 50 80 42 16 NEW LONDON 50 76 46 18 NEW ULM 53 64 23 9 NORTH MANKATO 28 68 29 14 OKLEE 33 88 61 15 OLIVIA 20 70 20 10 ORTONVILLE 20 70 10 0 OTTERTAIL 49 88 49 20 OWATONNA 41 71 29 17 PARK RAPIDS 48 100 60 23 PELICAN RAPIDS 30 93 57 7 PIGEON RIVER BRIDGE 25 100 84 64 PINE RIVER DAM 27 100 59 22 PIPESTONE 44 66 20 2 POKEGAMA DAM 51 98 78 39 PRESTON 36 72 28 11 RED LAKE FALLS 54 93 72 33 RED LAKE INDIAN RES. 62 90 60 24 RED WING 45 84 29 11 REDWOOD FALLS AIRPORT 54 61 24 6 REMER 26 100 65 35 RIVERTON 21 95 57 29 ROCHESTER AIRPORT 63 78 27 14 ROSEAU 29 100 66 31 ROSEMOUNT 49 90 31 14 ROTHSAY 34 76 29 9 SAINT CLOUD AIRPORT 54 74 41 11 SAINT JAMES 42 74 24 17 SAINT PAUL 45 80 36 20 SAINT PETER 44 59 23 9 SANDY LAKE DAM 55 95 73 29 SANTIAGO 43 88 53 21 SPRINGFIELD 63 60 25 10 SPRING GROVE 43 70 40 7 STEWART 36 67 44 17 STILLWATER 34 71 38 15 THIEF RIVER FALLS 26 96 77 46 THORHULT 48 96 83 35 TOWER 21 100 90 48 TRACY 57 72 32 12 TWO HARBORS 28 82 57 25 TYLER 41 56 32 5 VIRGINIA 30 100 80 30 WABASHA 40 75 30 15 WADENA 71 92 45 21 WALKER 58 100 64 31 WARROAD 36 97 72 33 WASECA 62 81 37 21 WELLS 43 72 28 14 WHEATON 42 69 29 12 WHITEFACE RESERVOIR 33 100 88 42 WILLMAR 44 70 36 20 WINDOM 53 70 30 9 WINNEBAGO 65 77 35 15 WINNIBIGOSHISH DAM 45 96 76 44 WINONA 67 78 34 7 WINONA DAM 56 79 32 11 WINTON 33 100 91 55 WORTHINGTON 29 76 24 14 WRIGHT 41 98 63 34 YOUNG AMERICA 25 64 28 12 ZUMBROTA 34 71 29 15 FARGO, ND 58 81 40 5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION PROBABLILITY % YEARS OF RECORD 1 INCH 5 INCHES 10 INCHES
A REVIEW OF WEATHER RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 24TH AND 25TH FOR MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL MINNESOTA CHRISTMAS EVE (DECEMBER 24) CHRISTMAS DAY (DECEMBER 25) YEAR HIGH LOW PRECIP/SNOW DEPTH HIGH LOW PRECIP/SNOW DEPTH --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1899 30 11 0 / 0 0 11 2 0 / 0 0 1900 15 6 0.04 / 0.5 1 11 6 0.01 / 0.2 1 1901 33 28 0 / 0 1 34 20 0 / 0 1 1902 11 -4 0.07 / 0.1 6 -4 -15 0 / 0 6 1903 26 -1 0.02 / 0.4 3 -1 -14 0.04 / 0.6 3 1904 20 12 0.03 / 0.5 1 26 19 T / T T 1905 28 5 0 / 0 1 37 17 0 / 0 T 1906 25 14 T / T T 34 20 0 / 0 0 1907 32 14 0.03 / 0.3 1 29 7 0 / 0 1 1908 27 13 T / T 6 28 12 T / T 6 1909 27 16 0.01 / 0.1 10 19 -3 T / T 10 1910 9 -8 0 / 0 1 21 9 0.19 / 2.5 4 1911 30 11 0 / 0 0 19 4 0 / 0 0 1912 32 12 0 / 0 4 35 27 0 / 0 4 1913 35 13 0 / 0 0 19 10 T / T T 1914 1 -9 0 / 0 5 -5 -14 0 / 0 5 1915 28 13 0 / 0 3 20 14 T / T 3 1916 16 3 0.13 / 1.3 6 26 2 T / T 6 1917 32 -9 0 / 0 T 8 -13 0 / 0 T 1918 30 11 T / T T 27 8 0 / 0 T 1919 21 7 0 / 0 8 40 18 0 / 0 8 1920 5 -7 0 / 0 5 13 -1 0.09 / 3.0 8 1921 -2 -18 0 / 0 2 19 -7 0 / 0 2 1922 40 33 0 / 0 0 51 26 0 / 0 0 1923 34 24 0 / 0 0 36 25 0 / 0 0 1924 4 -15 T / T 5 10 -14 0 / 0 5 1925 15 9 0.01 / 0.1 1 11 -4 0 / 0 1 1926 6 -5 0 / 0 9 17 -3 0 / 0 9 1927 23 6 0 / 0 13 26 13 T / T 13 1928 41 25 0 / 0 T 43 24 0 / 0 T 1929 29 15 0.02 / 0.2 1 33 12 T / T 1 1930 30 13 0 / 0 T 29 22 T / T T 1931 37 29 0.14 / 1.6 1 36 24 0 / 0 T 1932 32 24 0.63 / 3.0 3 32 18 0.40 / 5.0 8 1933 21 -15 0.03 / 0.6 2 -6 -16 0.08 / 1.4 3 1934 24 3 0 / 0 6 27 -12 0.12 / 1.2 7 1935 5 -9 0.06 / 1.2 5 7 -10 0.04 / 0.4 6 1936 39 33 T / T 0 42 36 T / T T 1937 16 4 0.03 / 0.3 2 20 3 0.01 / 0.1 2 1938 23 13 0.02 / 0.2 3 34 3 T / T 3 1939 27 8 0 / 0 3 26 20 T / T 3 1940 44 33 0 / 0 3 41 35 0 / 0 2 1941 36 22 0 / 0 T 31 27 0 / 0 T 1942 17 9 0 / 0 4 30 14 0.10 / 1.2 5 1943 34 14 0 / 0 0 43 23 0 / 0 0 1944 24 6 T / T T 15 -5 0 / 0 T 1945 24 20 0.12 / 1.7 4 28 22 0.78 / 9.6 14 1946 25 11 0 / 0 1 35 11 0.01 / 0.2 1 1947 21 9 T / T 6 32 11 T / T 6 1948 24 0 0 / 0 2 13 -6 0 / 0 2 1949 31 -3 T / T T 38 4 0 / 0 T 1950 23 2 0 / 0 9 7 0 0.39 / 5.9 14 1951 10 -16 0.03 / 0.3 9 25 8 0.15 / 1.5 10 1952 28 10 T / 0.1 5 18 5 T / T 5 1953 40 20 0 / 0 1 36 25 T / T 1 1954 35 27 0 / 0 3 38 29 0 / 0 3 1955 36 9 0 / 0 7 15 4 0.06 / 1.0 7 1956 22 10 0.06 / 0.6 1 28 9 T / T 1 1957 46 22 0 / 0 0 36 30 0.10 / 1.0 0 1958 37 22 T / T T 38 16 0 / 0 T 1959 29 23 T / T 1 38 27 0.03 / 0 1 1960 24 -1 0.02 / 0.3 T 26 8 T / T 1 1961 29 17 T / T 8 23 15 T / T 8 1962 16 -9 0.06 / 0.7 1 16 -20 0.06 / 0.8 2 1963 40 17 0 / 0 4 35 13 0 / 0 3 1964 26 4 0.02 / T 3 13 2 0.12 / 1.8 4 1965 34 25 T / T 0 32 20 T / T 0 1966 22 7 0 / 0 1 15 0 0 / 0 1 1967 32 17 0.01 / 0.1 0 25 5 T / T T 1968 2 -17 T / 0.2 16 4 -18 0.05 / 1.0 15 1969 23 12 0.07 / 1.6 13 23 15 0.02 / 0.5 14 1970 16 -13 T / T 3 15 0 0 / 0 3 1971 35 10 T / T 4 31 15 T / T 3 1972 25 8 0.01 / 0.1 3 30 11 0.05 / 0.9 3 1973 32 24 0.20 / 0.9 4 34 31 0.16 / 1.4 5 1974 21 11 0.01 / 0.2 3 21 1 T / T 2 1975 26 22 T / T 3 26 23 T / T 3 1976 34 15 T / T T 30 25 0.01 / 0.1 T 1977 22 2 T / T T 2 -10 T / T T 1978 16 -1 T / T 11 14 1 T / T 11 1979 35 28 T / T T 31 23 0 / 0 T 1980 12 -9 T / T 1 16 -12 T / T 1 1981 26 8 0 / 0 4 23 12 0.01 / 0.1 4 1982 38 35 1.26 / 0 0 38 17 1.35 / 1.4 T 1983 -10 -25 0 / 0 20 1 -11 T / T 20 1984 5 -9 0.01 / 0.2 4 19 -8 0 / 0 3 1985 2 -11 0 / 0 9 7 -7 0.05 / 0.6 10 1986 34 26 T / T 1 30 26 0 / 0 T 1987 32 22 0.18 / 2.7 3 22 0 0.01 / 0.1 5 1988 25 10 T / T T 17 5 T / T T 1989 24 7 0.01 / 0.3 2 35 5 0.01 / 0.1 2 1990 15 -14 T / T 6 18 -16 T / T 6 1991 35 16 0 / 0 9 36 14 0 / 0 9 1992 30 -11 0.01 / 0.2 2 30 -2 T / T 2 1993 11 -2 T / 0.1 2 10 -3 T / T 2 1994 43 21 0 / 0 2 45 23 0 / 0 1 1995 27 19 T / T 5 22 13 T / T 5 1996 7 -11 0.01 / 0.2 18 -9 -22 T / T 18 1997 26 22 T / 0.2 T 28 17 T / T 0 1998 17 0 0.00 / 0.2 1 22 7 T / T 1 1999 22 -2 T / 0.2 3 43 17 T / T 2 2000 1 -13 0.00 / 0 11 12 -17 0.01 / 0.2 10 2001 19 8 0.00 / 0 6 16 7 0.02 / 0.3 5 2002 20 12 T / T T 23 11 0 / 0 T 2003 28 10 0 / 0 4 33 12 0 / 0 3 2004 10 -10 T / 0.1 1 18 8 0.01 / 0.2 1 2005 37 32 T / 0 4 35 32 T / 0 3 2006 40 23 0 / 0 T 34 21 0 / 0 T 2007 20 6 0 / 0 7 28 19 0.15 / 3.4 6 2008 14 -2 T / 0.2 7 26 -6 0 / 0 8 2009 34 26 0.44 / 5.2 11 37 23 0.56 / 2.0 12 2010 26 18 0.18 / 2.3 19 20 16 T / T 19 2011 42 18 0 / 0 T 42 30 0 / 0 0 2012 18 6 0.01 / 0.5 1 13 0 0 / 0 1 2013 11 -13 0.23 / 2.8 6 28 9 0.02 / 0.2 9 2014 36 31 0 / 0 0 35 30 T / T 0 2015 27 23 0 / 0 1 30 25 0 / 0 T 2016 36 33 T / 0 4 37 32 0.97 / T 4 2017 22 4 0.01 / 0.1 1 4 -6 T / T 1 2018 26 15 0 / 0.0 T 28 19 0 / 0 T 2019 37 32 0 / 0.0 6 33 30 T / 0 6 2020 7 -3 T / 0.1 8 17 -5 0 / 0 8 2021 43 28 T / 0.0 1 29 18 T / T 0 2022 7 -5 0 / 0.0 10 8 -4 T / T 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR HIGH LOW PRECIP/SNOW DEPTH HIGH LOW PRECIP/SNOW DEPTH CHRISTMAS EVE (DECEMBER 24) CHRISTMAS DAY (DECEMBER 25) *From 1890 to the 1936-1937 winter season, measurements were located at the U.S. Court House in downtown Minneapolis. From 1937 to 1999 the official snow site for the Twin Cities was located at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. From 2000 to 2003, snow measurements are located at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen while temperature measurements continue at the International Airport. In 2004 snowfall measurements once again returned to the International Airport. Data from the Minneapolis/St. Paul table was compiled by the National Weather Service and the State Climatology Office.