A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month.
State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
Distributed: March 6, 2026
What happened in February 2026:
February is on average the driest month of the year. Normal precipitation is generally less than an inch for most locations. Precipitation for February 2026, was mostly below normal across the central and south, with above normal precipitation in the north. One of the higher monthly precipitation totals found was 7 miles northwest of Two Harbors in Lake County with 3.40 inches, 2.14 inches above normal. Much of this precipitation fell in the North Shore Blizzard of February 17-19. One of the driest locations was one tenth of an inch (.10) at Pipestone in Pipestone County. The preliminary state average for Minnesota was .65 inches or .19 inches below normal.
[see: February 2026 Precipitation Total Map | February 2026 Precipitation Departure Map | February 2026 Climate Summary Table]There was one large snow event that stood out in the month.
After a mostly ho-hum winter, and following a week of warmth with record-high temperatures at times, a major winter storm produced strong winds and heavy snow in northern Minnesota with rain changing to snow elsewhere. Near the north shore of Lake Superior, powerful winds off the lake produced a ferocious blizzard with much stronger winds and much heavier snows than were observed in other parts of the state, including some of the highest snowfall totals ever recorded in Minnesota.
[see: North Shore Blizzard, February 17-19, 2026]February was a very warm month, especially during the first three weeks. The preliminary average temperature was 22.7 degrees, 7 degrees above normal and 11 degrees warmer than February 2025. February 2026 will wind up in the top 20 warmest February's on record statewide. The coldest temperature found in February 2026 was -29 degrees F on February 1 at Kabetogama in St. Louis County and the warmest temperature found so far was 63 degrees on February 16th at Marshall in Lyon County. Winnebago in Faribault County.
[see: Minnesota Climate Trends | February 2026 Climate Summary Table]
Where we stand now:
As of March 5, warmer conditions melted the snow pack across central and southern Minnesota. Bare ground is the rule from the Iowa Border north to a line from Fargo to Pine City. A deep snow pack of one to two feet persists along the north shore, especially away from Lake Superior. [see: Weekly Snow Depth and Ranking Maps | NWS Snow Depth Estimation Map | Midwest Regional Climate Center Snow Depth Map]
The U. S. Drought Monitor map released on March 5, 2026 shows that the multi-year drought continues, but is somewhat improved comparing last year at this time. 32% of Minnesota has no drought designation. About 33% of the state was Abnormally Dry, 33% of the state is in Moderate Drought conditions, and 3% of the state is under Severe Drought conditions. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe, etc.) are based on several indicators.
[see: Drought Conditions Overview]The U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values (where winter measurements are possible) show a wide range of stream flow values mostly in above normal stream flow values in the south, to below normal in the central, and a wide range from below normal, to above normal in the north.
[see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions]In their final report of the 2025 growing season (November 29), the Agricultural Statistics Service reported that topsoil moisture across Minnesota was 3 percent Very Short, 19 percent Short, 74 percent Adequate, and 5 percent Surplus. History has shown that soil moisture conditions observed in the late autumn are indicative of conditions to be expected when the soil thaws. Soil moisture levels at Lamberton on November 15 showed soil moisture recovery since mid-October, and a little above historical averages.;
[see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition | U. of M. Southwest Research & Outreach Center (Lamberton) | U. of M. Southern Research & Outreach Center (Waseca)]The potential for wildfires is currently rated by DNR Forestry as Low across the entire state.
[see: Fire Danger Rating Map]Frost depths were fairly average this winter, with thawing commencing in the soil across southern and central Minnesota. On March 6, the top 9 inches under sod was thawed at the U of M St. Paul Campus Climate Observatory, with a lens of ice from 10-13 inches. Waseca is similar with the soil thawed under sod to 10 inches with a lens of frozen soil between 11-13 inches.
[see: National Weather Service Frost Depth Data | MnDOT Road Frost Depths | Minnesota Department of Agriculture Six-Inch Soil Temperature Network ]Lakes in Minnesota are currently ice covered with darkening of the ice in southern Minnesota and water along the edges. The median lake ice out date for the first lakes to lose their ice in southern Minnesota is during the last week of March. Lake and river ice is never completely safe. Ice cover on Lake Superior has generally been near the 1973-2025 median for the winter. On March 6, 2026, 30% of Lake Superior was ice covered. The maximum ice coverage for Lake Superior typically happens in late February. For the 2025-26 lake ice season, the maximum lake ice coverage for Superior was 62% on March 2.
[see: DNR Conservation Officer Reports | 2026 Lake Ice-Out Dates | Great Lakes Ice Cover]
Future prospects:
The March precipitation outlook has a fairly strong tendency for above normal precipitation, especially across northeast and southeast parts of the state. Historically, average March precipitation totals range from near three-quarters of an inch in northwestern Minnesota to around two inches in southern sections of the state. March is a transition month when cold, dry continental air masses are gradually replaced by warm, moist air on a more frequent basis. This is demonstrated by the fact that March's normal precipitation is 50 percent higher than February's normal precipitation, the greatest percentage increase between any two successive months.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | March Precipitation Normal Map]It looks like March may have quite a dividing line between winter in the north and spring in the south. The March temperature outlook indicates a fairly strong tendency for above normal temperatures in the south and equal chances for below, normal, and above normal temperatures in the north. Normal March high temperatures climb from near 30 degrees early in the month to the low to mid-40s by month's end. In the south the average high temperature is near 50 by the end of the month. Normal March lows begin the month in the single digits above zero in the far north and mid-teens in the south. By late March, normal lows are in the low 20s in the north, near 30 in the south.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | March Temperature Normal Map]The 90-day precipitation outlook for March through May indicates equal chances for below, normal and above normal precipitation across all but the northeast, where there is a slight tilt for above normal precipitation. There are equal chances for below, normal and above normal temperatures in the central and south, with a slight tendency for below normal temperatures in the north.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 90-day Outlook]The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities. Here are the current weather conditions impacting prospects for spring snow melt flooding:
There is a low flood risk this spring, mostly due to the lack of snowfall. 2/3rds of the state is covered by some level of drought and in most places, precipitation would be welcome. Spring flood risk is above normal around Lake Superior where there is a greater about of snow water.
[see: National Weather Service –Covering Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers]
[see: National Weather Service – Covering Red River and Devils Lake Basin]
[see: National Weather Service – Covering Rainy River, Lake Superior, and Upper Mississippi River basins]
[see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]
From the author:
The Meteorological Winter (December-February) of 2025-26 finished about a half of a degree F above normal in Minnesota, despite both December and January being below normal. The statewide February temperature average of seven degrees above normal more than counterbalanced the two cold months. Average statewide precipitation fell about a half an inch short for Meteorological Winter, with southwest Minnesota being the driest.
Upcoming dates of note:
March 19: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
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Pete Boulay, DNR Climatologist