A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota's climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources. Distributed on the first Thursday of the month. Please note that some web links may not work because of suspended services during the federal government shutdown.
State Climatology Office - DNR Division of Ecological and Water Resources, St. Paul
distributed: October 10, 2025
What happened in September 2025:
- September 2025 was dry across Minnesota, with very few exceptions. The majority of the state finished 0.5 to 1.5 inches short of normal precipitation, with some places in southern Minnesota around two inches short. The preliminary average statewide precipitation was 2.41 inches, or 0.85 inches below normal. A small pocket just southeast of the Twin Cities finished with above normal precipitation., including the Red Wing Dam, with 5.22 inches, which is 1.56 inches above normal. One of the drier locations was Worthington, with only 0.42 inches or 2.79 inches below normal. Just across the Minnesota border, Sioux Falls wound up with 0.22 inches.
[see: September 2025 Precipitation Total Map | September 2025 Precipitation Departure Map | September 2025 Climate Summary Table | 2025 September Departure from Normal Precipitation Map - A few days in September 2025 had reports of severe storms, with one severe episode of note on September 21, when storms dropped large hail of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in diameter (golf ball to hen's egg-sized) over the southeast Twin Cities metro area. Hail also fell in the Waseca area, with some tree branches down from strong thunderstorm winds.
[see: September 21, 2025 SPC Storm Reports] - Another year, another warm September in Minnesota! While falling short of 2024's record warmth, September 2025 still finished well above normal, with a preliminary average temperature of 63.3 degrees, which is 3.7 degrees above normal, and landing well within the top-10 warmest on record for the third year in a row. The last time Minnesota had a September cooler than in 1991-2020 averages was in 2020. As of early October, the highest daily temperature reported during September was 94 degrees F, recorded at Milan and Sherburn. The lowest temperature reported was 29 degrees F at International Falls, Brimson, and Celena on September 7. While there was frost in the north, no widespread killing frost was reported in central and southern Minnesota during the month of September.
[see: September 2025 Climate Summary Table | 2025 September Departure from Normal Temperature Map]
Where we stand now:
- The dryness of the past month was beginning to make inroads on the seasonal precipitation map. April 1-October 7 precipitation rankings were in the bottom 15% over much of northern Minnesota, where warm season deficits have been accumulating, while surpluses and higher percentile rankings remain in west central and south central Minnesota.
[see: Seasonal Precipitation Ranking Maps] - The U.S. Drought Monitor map released on October 7 depicts increased drought intensity over the last couple weeks. Over half (57%) of the state is at least Abnormally Dry, and 12% of the state is now in the Moderate Drought category. The U.S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where drought categories (Moderate, Severe etc.) are based on several indicators.
[see: Drought Conditions Overview] - The U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge varies widely across the state and has been trending downwards. On October 10, stream flows were generally below to much below normal over parts of central and northern Minnesota and normal to much above normal in the south. The Mississippi River at Brainerd was in the “Low” category.
[see: USGS Stream Flow Conditions | Weekly Stream Flow Maps and Tables] - Water levels fell on lakes in general during the late summer and into autumn. The Mille Lacs lake level was about a tenth of a foot lower than this time last year, at 10.50 feet. On October 10, Minnetonka was at 928.72 ft, a little over a tenth of a foot above this time last year. White Bear Lake was at 923.16 ft, a rise of about a half-foot from this time a year ago and about nine tenths of a foot higher than this time in 2023. Lake of the Woods was at the low end of the normal band for early October, and Rainy Lake was in the middle of the normal band. Lake Superior was at 602 feet in September, two inches below the September average. The current 6‐month water level forecast projects Lake Superior will likely begin its seasonal decline next month.
[see: Mille Lacs Lake Water Level | Lake Minnetonka Water Level | White Bear Lake Water Level | Lake of the Woods Control Board Basin Data | Corps of Engineers Great Lakes Water Levels] - The Agricultural Statistics Service issued their final report before shutdown on September 28. Topsoil moisture across Minnesota was 15 percent Very Short and Short, 75 percent Adequate, and 10 percent Surplus. An estimated 64% of the corn crop was mature, behind the five-year average. About 7% was harvested for grain. 22% of soybeans were harvested, a bit behind the five-year average. Soil moisture at Lamberton on October 1 was significantly above the historical average (by about two inches) and higher than the same period for each of the last four years.
[see: Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress and Condition | U. of M. Southwest Research & Outreach Center (Lamberton)] - DNR Forestry rated the potential for wildfires as of October 10 as High over nearly the entire state except the far northeast and northwest, where they indicate a Moderate potential. Historically, 80 percent of all wildfires in Minnesota occur during April and May.
[see: Fire Danger Rating Map]
Future prospects:
- Warm Octobers tend to follow warm Septembers and the Climate Prediction Center's outlook indicates a generally warm October. Normal October high temperatures are in the 50s and 60s F to start the month, dropping to the low 50s to upper 40s by month's end. Normal lows are in the upper 30s and 40s F early in the month, falling to the upper 20s to 30s by late October.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | October Temperature Normal Map]
- The Climate Prediction Center outlook for October leans dry in the south, with equal chances for below normal, normal, and above normal precipitation in the north. Normal October precipitation is greatest in the the northeast, averaging around 3.5 inches in Cook County. Values drop in all directions, to around 1.5 inches in northwest Minnesota, to around 1.75 inches in the southwest, and to 2.5 inches in east-central Minnesota.
[see: Climate Prediction Center 30-day Outlook | October Precipitation Normal Map] - According to the most recent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, there is a 71% chance of La Niña developing between October and December 2025, with a weak La Niña persisting through February 2026. The Climate Prediction Center’s Outlook for December 2025-February 2026 has equal chances of below normal and above normal temperatures.
[see: Climate Prediction Center December-February Outlook] - Weak La Niña episodes since 2000 have favored above-normal precipitation and have slightly favored above-average snowfall. The Climate Prediction Center winter outlook (for December through February) indicates equal chances for below, above, and normal precipitation for Minnesota.
[see: Climate Prediction Center December-February Outlook] - The National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products address both high flow and low flow probabilities.
[see: National Weather Service - North Central River Forecast Center]
From the author:
- Ever since the 2020s began, drought has recurred repeatedly in Minnesota, broken by well-timed and sometimes significant wet spells. During the fall of 2025, Minnesota has been slipping back into drought. Many stations have below-normal precipitation for the year to date, with Duluth short by 7.89 inches through October 9, 2025. Stations in the west-central and southeast still have surpluses. In general, 2024 was ahead of this year for precipitation at most locations. Statewide average precipitation in 2024 finished above normal for first time since 2019.
Upcoming dates of note:
- October 16: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
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Pete Boulay, DNR Climatologist